考研英語精品閱讀:不要因油價上升而失眠_(dá)跨考網(wǎng)

　　Could the bad old daysof economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts inMarch, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from lessthan $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memoriesof the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almosttripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and globaleconomic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?

　　The oil price was givenanother push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengtheningeconomic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere,could push the price higher still in the short term.

　　Yet there are good reasonsto expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. Inmost countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of theprice of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up tofour-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price ofcrude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.

　　Rich economies are alsoless dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in theoil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in theimportance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption.Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or carproduction. For each dollar of GDP (inconstant prices) rich economies now usenearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil pricesaveraged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this wouldincrease the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That isless than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand,oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriouslysqueezed.

　　One more reason not tolose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s,it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflationand global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emergingfrom economic decline. The Economist'scommodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodityprices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.

　　全文翻譯

　　過去經(jīng)濟(jì)衰落的糟糕日子會不會重來?自從石油輸出國組織在3月同意減少原油供應(yīng)，原油的價格已經(jīng)從去年12月的不到10美元一桶上升到約26美元一桶。這次近3倍的漲價令人想起了1973年的恐慌，當(dāng)時油價上漲了4倍;以及1979―1980年的那一次，當(dāng)時的油價也上漲了近3倍。前兩次的石油恐慌都導(dǎo)致了兩位數(shù)的通貨膨脹和全球性的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。那么這次警告人們厄運(yùn)來臨的頭版新聞都到哪里去了呢?

　　本周伊拉克暫停石油出口，這又一次推動著油價上揚(yáng)。強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長勢頭，加上北半球冬季的到來，有可能在短期內(nèi)使石油價格漲得更高。

　　然而，我們有充分的理由預(yù)期這次油價暴漲帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響不會像70年代那么嚴(yán)重。現(xiàn)在多數(shù)國家的原油價格占汽油價格的份額比70年代要小很多。在歐洲，稅占了汽油零售價的4/5，因此，即使原油價格發(fā)生很大的波動，汽油價格所受的影響也不會像過去那么顯著。

　　發(fā)達(dá)國家對石油的依賴也比從前要少得多，因此對油價的波動也就不會那么敏感。能源儲備、燃料替代以及能源密集型重工業(yè)的重要性的降低，都減少了石油消耗。軟件、咨詢及移動通訊消耗的石油，比鋼鐵、汽車行業(yè)少得多。發(fā)達(dá)國家國民生產(chǎn)總值中每一個美元所消耗的石油量比1973年少了近一半。國際經(jīng)合組織在其最近一期的《經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》中估計(jì)，如果全年油價均價22美元左右，與1998年的13美元一桶相比，這僅僅會使發(fā)達(dá)國家的石油進(jìn)口在支出上增加GDP的 0.25%―0.5%。這還不到1974年或1980年收入損失部分的1/4。另一方面，由于重工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移至一些新興石油進(jìn)口國，它們對能源可能更加敏感，也更可能會受到強(qiáng)烈影響。

　　另外一個不應(yīng)因油價上升而失眠的原因是，與70年代的上漲不同，這次油價上升的大背景不是普遍的物價暴漲及全球過旺的需求。世界上很多地區(qū)才剛剛走出經(jīng)濟(jì)衰落?！?a href="http://www.ivlnzgm.cn/kaoyan/jj/" target="_blank">經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家》的商品價格指數(shù)一年來總的來說沒有什么變化。1973年的商品價格躍升了70%，而1979年也上升了近30%。